When I saw this report in the FT two days ago...
Apple demands 30% slice of subscriptions
Apple is dictating tougher terms of commerce on its wildly successful mobile devices, demanding a 30 per cent cut of all subscriber content sold directly through its iPads and iPhones.
The new rules, which apply internationally, say that if publishers offer digital subscriptions they must make the same offer through the App Store. Publishers can still offer subscriptions through their own websites, but cannot link to the website from their app.
...I thought to myself that content owners and publishers deserved the mess they found themselves in. They all ran arms wide open to Apple, starting with the music industry a few years ago, as though it was the messiah, the one and only saviour of their imperilled business models. It was, but quickly does the embrace turn into a bone-crushing bear-hug. If you anoint someone with the powers of a monopoly, you can't expect him not to exercise those powers.
Today's news though is that publishers have an alternative with Google unveiling a new payment system.
Google’s One Pass to take on Apple
Google has thrown down the gauntlet to Apple with a payment service for digital content that features a more generous revenue share for publishers than Apple’s new system. ... The initial partners are all newspaper publishers, but Google said it could also be used for music or video content. ... [Eric] Schmidt, [CEO of Google], called the One Pass service “very publisher-friendly ... We basically don’t make any money on this.”
Gotta love the corporate version of a soap opera, what with Schmidt even being a former board member of Apple.
Street-side gawking aside, I'm bearish on Apple as a company. They make pretty things everyone wants to buy but, gosh, they're expensive, the competition is intense and has arguably caught up with them, the control culture is stifling, the gadgets stop working one day after the warranty period ends, they're squeezing their suppliers too hard, etc, etc. And let's not forget Steve Jobs's health problems, tragic though this is on a personal level.
Apple is the second-largest publicly traded company in America today and in fact isn't wildly over-valued when you look at some basic price multiples, but I'm calling a top. The stock has only one way to go from here -- down.
(If you disagree, remember to make fun of me a year from now when they're the largest company in America!)
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