...on current evidence. Six months ago, I called a top on Apple. Since then, the stock price has continue to rise, briefly making it the world's largest publicly listed company by market capitalisation last week. Cue many excited articles. I can't be bothered to link any more. There were also more sensible articles from Paid Content (which contains the hilarious quote: "Microsoft is finally taking mobile seriously but its legal department has had more success than its product development people") and the WSJ among others telling us why such comparisons are, apart from their entertainment value, pointless and stupid.
More important than the symbolism of becoming the world's most valuable company -- note that they were helped by a 14% fall in Exxon Mobil's share price -- is the fact that Apple's stock price rose 4% over the same period, going bang against my prediction.
However, what does all of this mean for the future? Will Apple continue to generate outstanding returns for its shareholders? I remain cynical, but maybe that's just bias. There is the problem of being so big: how do you grow even bigger at the same pace as historically? Lex is doubtful, but perhaps not as much as me. Aswath Damodaran was optimistic as of January. Time will tell. Let's check back in six more months.
The idea of checking back in six months reminds me of this funny Ellen Degeneres quote I once came across, which you are welcome to use to make fun of me:
The good psychic would pick up the phone before it rang. Of course it is possible there was no one on the other line. Once she said "God Bless you." I said, "I didn't sneeze." She looked deep into my eyes and said, "You will, eventually." And damn it if she wasn't right. Two days later I sneezed.
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